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Week of November 12th

Updated: Nov 17, 2023

In the last 2 weeks, we have seen the NDX rally 10% alone, but the real key to the secret sauce is in /ES.

Here is where we are on the NDX Daily;

You can see above that all this thing has done, is gap up on Sunday October 23 - and ran from there all the way to this last unbalanced 4hr Fair Value Gap.

The REAL story (and where I take my bias from) - is the weekly chart;

So far, all we have done is balance things out and I still am shorting from 15604 up here.

Where they bottomed the indexes makes sense- as you can see the cyan line ties the Covid Lows to the Oct 2022 and Oct 2023 lows

As for the market structure profile, I look to the /ES weekly chart for this

/ES this week finally swept the October Highs and we left a weekly Fair Value Gap below us here. I am shorting 4431 here and my initial target for both NQ and ES are the May Lows. We could easily see a Monday Spike to really run more of the stops - but my weekly bias is down.

This week is monthly OPEX - so they could just park us somewhere, but as a swing trader, I am looking for a move lower to the May lows first.

I'm looking for volatility expansion into Tuesdays CPI, the PPI print on Wednesday morning - and a looming Govt Shutdown on Friday - gonna be a busy week! I will update my trade thesis throughout the week as the charts evolve.

11/17 Update

I have been out of town all week as CPI/PPI printed this week. CPI came in showing inflation waning and PPI showed the same - this means we are entering a recession but stocks don't care - at first.

Rates are dropping due to the underlying economy weakening.

That said, they ran ALL the stops basically in NQ out on the CPI print this week. I reestablished a short at 16k - my target from here is still the May Lows ~ 13.6k

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Justin Caraway
Justin Caraway
Nov 17, 2023

I also really like oil as a Swing Long from down here

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