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Week of April 1st

Updated: Apr 7

Happy Easter!!

This week is the first week of a new month - so we have LOTS to look at this week as we will be talking about the Monthly Charts.

Indexes:  I will be focusing on NDX and RTY this week.

Nasdaq - Has an interesting setup. We are going to form a small monthly FVG when the markets open on Sunday night. We have also been stuck in this bull flag for the past week straight.

Last Wed, Powell came out and the market went vertical. We have spent the last 6 sessions now slowly grinding lower into this imbalance left behind. Now we have an added monthly FVG that we need to visit, and we also need to do at least a 50% retrace of the vertical market from last week.

I am looking for the selling to continue down to around the 18350 level as that will satisfy us both getting inside the monthly FVG (thus satisfying the MONTHLY ERL(ATH) to IRL move), and will balance the daily candles out as well.

Below on the 4hr chart - you can see we have a swing low down around 18378 - that will be my target to start scouting for longs next week - although we could dig a little deeper


Russel 2k - Has an interesting setup as well after hitting 52wk highs on Friday.

Small Caps are breaking out, and we hit a weekly ERL Level this week! Being that I have no IRL that we need to visit on the WEEKLY context, we have to drop to the daily to find it.

Below is the daily chart. I am looking for ~ 1% pullback to the daily IRL and the 50% retrace of the latest swing move to scout for longs.

DXY - Pretty boring week for DXY, but progress none the less. I am looking for a move up to 104.983 ERL level before a pullback to 103 or so. This should provide pressure on commodities which I will cover next - as oil is setting up nicely here.

Crude Oil:  Oil swept last weeks high right into the close on Thursday. I have no context on the weekly, so I have to drop to the daily to find targets.

I could see oil going either way on the daily. We closed at a 2 week high but never got a real pullback. Weather we go from here or pop up to that 84 area, I am scouting for pullbacks into logical areas to long.

10yr Note:  Rates continue to slide - and I think they are headed much lower. Buying Bonds over the past 2 weeks has been a great move.

Bonds are a big liquid market and although I foresee rates heading back to 0% during the next crash over the next year - they will grind along until something causes panic to set in.

Gold:  Gold closed the week at a record high of 2238. The caveat here, is that I we are due for a pullback. We will know more once gold trades on Monday - but I am looking for a $120 retrace from here - and it will be a larger retracement if they jam gold higher next week.

So here is the setup I am watching for this week;

  • I want to see RTY and NQ pullback a little bit into the fresh Monthly FVGs that will print on Monday - these are dips to buy.

  • Looking for DXY to continue rising - this will pressure commodities even as Gold printed a new high last week. Oil should feel pressure as well

  • I am bullish Bonds. I am Bearish (very short term) Gold, indexes, Oil.

Until next week - We'll be watching.

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