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Week of December 10th

Updated: Dec 13, 2023

Things are starting to heat up for is as we near our final top target that we can sell into on the December /NQ contract. Market Makers are now down to just a few days to get out of their December Longs and they will require the stops 150 handles higher from here to do that.

Friday 12/8 we got the jobs report and we saw a few things happen confirming our bullish bias.

  1. The weekly chart is still reaching for the ERL at 16250 on the Dec NQ contract

  2. the 4h shows a Inverted Head & Shoulders (IHS) with a measured move up to this area.

  3. All dips are being bought on the 4h FVGs - they WANT this thing higher.

Below is the IHS on the 4h that shows the measured move to be the Dec contract highs being swept.

The concerning part from my perch, is how WEAK this pig market is intra-day.

You can see here on the 5min chart on Friday how the MMs had to engineer liquidity to drag the market higher.

Watching the tape live, you could see them selling hard into basically every spike.

So now that we know where we are, and we know where we are going (+150 handles from here) - then what?

We have to remember that the December contract rolls off the board on December 15th,. Between now and then we have TONS of news drivers;

So take your pick - there will be PLENTY of Volatility this week as they reach for 16250 to exit longs on the Dec contract.

After December 15th, the market goes into SUPER thin trading until Jan 1 as we enter the march contract and holiday season.

The March contract has already swept the contract highs - so I'm looking for a pullback to the weekly FVG down around 15250 on the /NQH contract.

Once we visit that FVG we will know if we can bounce from there and continue higher, or if this is just the start of something larger. The real tell will be the SPEED of the sell - if we get some violent 2 week sell off, we will create a Market Structure Shift (MSS) and a Break of Structure (BOS) signaling the change of trend from the WEEKLY chart.

Dec 12 Update: CPI came in and NQ rolled to march.

The REAL scary part for ES - is that if we fall from here to go back to 4320 area where that weekly FVG is - we will break that red trendline that ties Covid lows to the Oct 2022 lows.

Also - VIX finally filled its gap from Jan 2020 - there are now 0 VIX gaps below.

Dec 13th Update - FOMC day.

Powel delivered for the bulls. DJI is now nATH >37k. The NQ contract is now fully on march and at the contract highs - so I am still looking for a reversal on a Lower TF.

On a side note - the Powell Pivot to cutting rates looks to be starting. Election year in 2024 - but remember that rate cuts typically aren't bullish.

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Justin Caraway
Justin Caraway
12 ธ.ค. 2566

The December Contract High was swept and allowed MM to close longs and get short. I am now looking for a reversal to start to form on Lower Time Frames (LTF) towards the lower targets

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