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Week of Feb 11


New All Time Highs!



The eye watering manic market melt-up just closed its green 15th week. We had 1 red week out of the 15 - so we are seeing some truly historic stuff here.


I can't buy ATH in indexes, but luckily we are seeing some interesting divergences across the market.

Small caps are still down 20% from their ATH - but It smells like a buy could be coming very soon to ride this pony to ATH. Indexes will still need some confirmation as we are seeing some mixed signals throughout the market.



DXY:  DXY is stuck. I could make a bearish or bullish case for DXY, but the market is demanding patience. From the Monthly perspective, I am still expecting higher DXY - and this will put pressure on commodities like oil.



Energies: Oil went bid-only last week and sliced right through my daily target zone where I wanted to see a reversal to sell short.


When in doubt - zoom out!





DXY and Commodities are related to each other so again - the market is requiring patience. OIl on the Monthly is still bearish and this is all nothing but a noisy backtest.


Natural Gas is in a bid-less orderflow currently printing 4 year lows - and I can't wait to buy it. THAT time is not now - I have alerts set and well keep yall posted.





Interest Rates:  Rates are stuck as well - right alongside DXY on the higher timeframes. The daily chart on both - still looks bullish.





VIX:  VIX was flat on the week - but we are still setting up for a big VIX spike if we get the index rejection we are looking for.



Indexes:  I can't buy The DJI, NDX, nor SPX as we are at ATH - but the Russell offers plenty to dine on.


For starters, the Russel is the same price it was 2 years ago, but we are seeing a breakout and a confirmation of the bullish move on the weekly charts.


This is the exact kind of price action I want to see on a weekly chart.

On the WEEKLY - we took out old highs, and back tested a weekly FVG for internal liquidity.


This is a great bullish structure.


So now that we have gone ERL to IRL on the weekly, the next stop is a higher ERL to sweep - which looks to be up at around 2140 before I would expect any more meaningful pullbacks.


So here is the setup for this week;


  • Look for an up move/confirm on Small Caps/Russell 2k. I am expecting a small pullback on the 4h chart to buy into.

  • Looking for Oil to start to roll over due to the pressure from the Monthly TF.



Until next week - We'll be watching.

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