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Week of November 19th

Last week was flat, aside from the 238 handle vertical jam job brought to you by Tuesday's CPI print.

Aside from that - flat as a pancake as it was OPEX week.



Over the past 3 weeks - the Nasdaq has been bid-only in a rather inspiring fashion. We have nothing but FGVs left lower on the weekly and 4h Time Frames. I want to see this taken out with vengeance - bulls MUST hold 15k.



So far, they have ran EVEY short out of this market since the July Highs. Retail is max long, CNBC is mouth-foaming bullish, and Cramer declared we have achieved the fabled "soft landing".


I am looking for a sell program to start on the weekly around here - but the timing gets tricky. This week is a holiday shortened week in USA, next week is NFP week, and then volume dies off totally around December 15th.



Don't lose sight of what is going on - this is all 7 tech stocks pumping the NDX. $MSFT made nATH last week.


But look at the broader market - here is the Russel 2k - flat on the year.



Same is true with Equal weight SPX $RSP





I honestly believe the highs for this market cycle are in, and will stand for DECADES - but we need to see the market drop and keep dropping. 0DTE and gamma squeezes keep just launching the ponzi higher.



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Justin Caraway
Justin Caraway
21 de nov. de 2023

Look at that! 4h Ran the HOY stops for order pairing so the Big Boys could get net short the market. Next stop is 15k as that's the last weekly gap in the discount zone of this entire swing


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Justin Caraway
Justin Caraway
22 de nov. de 2023
Respondendo a

What a wild morning before Thanksgiving. NQ ran to a nHOY - right into the weekly CE. I still think we are/have topped.


We will have to wait - next week is NFP week and I will be out most of the week - but keep an eye on VIX as it nears the LOY - does that level hold for the 4th time? Having indexes soar to the final top just as the VIX bottoms would be rather poetic.



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Justin Caraway
Justin Caraway
20 de nov. de 2023

Oil is behaving really nicely on the weekly. The September top was a sweep of November 2022 highs - and we bounced off the weekly IRL. Next stop could be much, much higher - this will be a sign that inflation is back and will crush stocks.



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Justin Caraway
Justin Caraway
22 de nov. de 2023
Respondendo a

OPEC news about meeting jitters this morning sent oil down 5%. But nothing is broken - yet. All we did was pullback to a 4h FVG in the discount zone of this larger swing


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