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Week of Jan 1 2024

2023 was an absolutely wild year, and I expect 2024 to be more of the same. We are starting to notice some cracks forming on the 15m chart for the NDX - but we need to see this transform into a larger structure shift on the 4h for it to have any real bite. NQ is now only about 300 points away from delivering a market structure shift on the 4h, which will give us new downside targets once it is confirmed.

I don't put any real weight on price movements for the back half of December as volume is crazy light, and we see the options complex run amuck. January is where the real story begins, and we will have solid volume for the next 5-6 months.

DXY:  Last week, DXY bounced into the end of the after filing a weekly volume imbalance as well as a FVG - I still remain bullish DXY which will continue to put pressure on stocks and especially commodities.

10yr Interest Rate: The 10yr remains basically UNCH on the week alongside DXY. We filled a weekly volume imbalance and I am expecting higher rates into the big crash. The 10yr needs to get above the 2yr so that the curve un-inverts and we can have the proper recession. If the 10yr rises, this will crush stocks - and its the single trade that will change the entire market landscape - and nobody is positioned for it.

VIX:  We had a nice VIX pop on Friday right into a 4h FVG so it made sense to get long around there and ride the indexes higher for the morning bounce. The VIX is at pre-covid levels so all we need is a small mistake and VIX could go flying. IF the VIX bounces from here - its going to be putting pressure on the indexes - which everyone and their pet rock are currently max long.

Energies:   OIl & Natural Gas look to be bottoming down here, but it could just be a reaction to the DXY - I want to give them another week to present cleaner charts before I engage them.

Nasdaq - Record inflows into the market happened last week - EVERYONE is MAX long and its a crowded trade.

We are starting to see a subtle structure shift on the NQ. The first thing I want to bring up is the fact that ALL the big candles on the 4h chart - are red. To ME - this smells like big boys are distributing longs to the retail bag holders - and they are doing it in tranches. It has been like this for the past 2 weeks straight - so I am curious to see what happens in January.

The 15min chart is rolling over and we are so long as price continues to respect the bearish FVGs overhead - I am continuing to look for lower levels

This all still very early, and until we see a proper reversal on the 4h chart, it is hard for me to start scouting for lower targets on weekly chart.

This first week in Jan should be telling as we will get a return of volume and movement in the market that we can lean on for further price targets lower.

But for this first week of the year, lets see how they get things going and we can reassess once the weekly charts are painted.

FYI - if you haven't had a chance yet, check out my Q1 Targets for the markets - I think we could see some really interesting movements in markets - all to be driven by the 2s/10s yield curve.

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Welcome to 2024!

the 4h chart got us a Market Structure shift run right into a External Liquidity range (ERL). From HERE - I want to see us retrace back up to the Internal Liquidity range and at least 50% of this move around 16.9k.

3 more trading sessions to go this week!

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