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Week of March 10

Welcome to Quad witching week! Expect to see some volatility as we roll off the march contract and onto June by Friday.

This entire market rally continue to become more and more narrow. When you look at the equal-weighted NDX - we still haven't made a new ATH.

AAPL is now back to its October Lows.

Google is threatening the 200dma

The Russel is still 18% away from it ATH

I still have no higher Time Frame sell model on the indexes - so we are still buying dips as they come and selling into ATH.

This is starting to feel toppy though.

Excesses are starting to show up everywhere - when you have a retailer that sells close run the WEEKLY RSI up to 89 before selling - it lets you know where we are in the cycle.

DXY:  They sold DXY last week under the cover of Powell's Testimony and PCE coming in alignmen.t This is an area I am looking for a bounce on DXY and the 10yr as this was just a pullback to gap fills on the daily chart. This will directly pressure oil and the indexes for the next move lower.

Energies: Oil has been a blast to day trade recently - but its all coming to a head form here. I have remained bearish on oil due to the monthly chart - and we are finally rejecting up here and moving lower. This will align itself with a rising DXY

The drop in oil WILL NOT be in a straight line and we will get bounces - but we have a bearish monthly bias and I'm looking for a 12% drop or so in WTI.

Interest Rates:  Looking at the weekly chart - I want to see interest rates move lower. I think we will get a short term pop in rates, but I think the bond market knows that the globe is slipping into a recession. I still like the 10yr heading for the 2024 lows.

Japan, UK , EU, Germany - all in recession. USA will enter one later this year - which will put pressure on rates.

So here is the setup for this week;

  • Bulls will be supported by a drop in rates

  • Look for dips to buy on NQ - this will work until it doesn't. The market is continuing to narrow

  • Looking for oil to start to continue lower driven by the monthly chart.

Until next week - We'll be watching.

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