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Week of March 17th

Beware the Ides of March!

Major averages have suffered a small pullback of 2 down weeks in a row - but will it continue? FOMC this week and Powell speaks on Wednesday, so we will have a much clearer picture by Friday.

We'll start this week off by covering the Nasdaq as I think that's where the most froth is and this most ripe for a pullback.

Last week was the anniversary of the infamous Dotcom bubble implosion, so it would be highly ironic if this last Tech bubble is ending at the same time. All while pundits far and wide believe it's only getting started

Looking at the Equal-weighted NDX - you can see we never made a new ATH - as this entire rally was led and fueled by AI stock momentum;

Same basic idea is playing out on the Nasdaq Composite

So what am I looking for this week?

I'm looking for lower prices on NQ to buy for bounces and I am looking for spike to short.

Here are the initial price levels that I want to see respected IF we are to remain in a WEEKLY uptrend

On the 4h, I am looking for price to reach into the 17850 area for a bounce. The issue we have now is that the 200sma on the the 4hr chart has been violated. I want to see price stab lower for liquidity and bounce to backtest/confirm the break of the 200sma. Once we have proper confirmation of this trend change - the trading will become a lot cleaner.

DXY:  DXY had a nice green week last week but this could all just be a back-test for a steeper drop. As with indexes and rates and DXY - we will have a clearer picture by Friday after FOMC.

Energies: Oil was really strong last week, but I still think this all smells like a fake-out to the upside. How they close the Monthly Candle will be the real measure I am looking for.

IF they can close the body of that monthly candle back inside this MONTHLY FVG - then it was all a fake out and liquidity grab.

You can see on the daily(RHS) and weekly(LHS) charts here

Interest Rates:  Again - everything is aligned to Powell on Wednesday but the weekly and daily chart of the 10yr both remain bullish. The daily pulled back right to a logical area where we had a gap and has ran ever sense.

The BTFP bank-bailout program ended last week as we have now entered the RECORD LONGEST AND DURATION 2/10 yield curve inversion in history. This thing WILL un-invert at some point, and it when it does - hell will come. This is a MONTHLY chart and The bearish steepener will come - we just have to wait on it. Just another classic example of the historic times we are truly trading through.

So here is the setup I am watching for this week;

  • This is going to be a messy week - quad witching just happened and Powell speaks in 72hrs.

  • Looking to sell spikes in NQ. We need to see the 4hr really pickup speed and show us that it's truly rolling over here.

  • Looking for oil to start to continue lower driven by the monthly chart.

Until next week - We'll be watching.

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